Who Actually Declares the Winners on Election Night?
No government body declares winners on election night; news organizations project them, and most of those projections rest on the Associated Press’s count or on Decision Desk HQ’s. Official results come later, when election officials canvass and certify them. A call is a judgment by a newsroom that the trailing candidate can no longer win.
At the AP, that judgment belongs to its Decision Team, which PBS News describes as “journalists, data analysts and political science experts who study elections full-time.” A race is not called until competitors “no longer have a path to victory,” and David Scott, the AP’s vice president for U.S. election services, put the standard in five words: “Our certainty is our standard” (PBS News). The AP has tracked U.S. elections for 178 years, PBS reports, which by our arithmetic dates its vote count to 1848; Reuters gives the same starting year (Reuters).
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a private election-data company, works differently in its sign-off. Reuters reports that DDHQ draws mainly on official state sources, projects winners through statistical analysis and expert review, and requires unanimous agreement on its team plus sign-off from its head of data science before a call (Reuters).
Which Outlets Use AP, and Which Use Decision Desk HQ?
Nearly every major U.S. television network now uses AP’s vote count, while Nexstar’s NewsNation and The Hill use DDHQ; several networks still make some calls themselves. The table below is our own compilation from each source named; it is not a list any one outlet has published.
| Outlet | Race-call data and approach | Voter Poll partner? | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| ABC News | AP data; its own decision desk analyzes results | Yes | TheWrap; PBS News |
| CBS News | AP count plus its own projections from exit polls, early votes and modeling | Yes | TheWrap; Reuters |
| CNN | AP data; its own decision desk analyzes results | Yes | TheWrap; PBS News |
| Fox News | AP data since 2017; its desk makes its own calls for statewide races and House and Senate control | Yes | TheWrap; Reuters |
| NBC News | AP data; the NBC News Decision Desk also supplies independent calls to Noticias Telemundo | Yes | TheWrap; Adweek |
| MS NOW | Relies solely on AP calls | Yes | Reuters; PBS News |
| PBS News | AP Decision Team | Not among the six partners named | PBS News |
| The Wall Street Journal | Relies solely on AP calls | Not among the six partners named | Reuters |
| NewsNation and The Hill | Decision Desk HQ, exclusively | Not among the six partners named | Nexstar |
| Bloomberg | Third-party sources; makes no calls of its own | Not among the six partners named | Reuters |
Two readings follow from the table. First, an AP call and a network call are not always the same event: Fox’s desk and CBS make their own projections, so a race can be “called” on one channel before it is called on the AP feed, or the reverse. Second, the old split between rival exit-poll camps has largely closed, which matters for anyone quoting “the exit polls” on Wednesday morning.
What Is the Voter Poll, and What Did It Replace?
The Voter Poll is a survey of the 2026 electorate built by the AP with ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MS NOW and NBC News; it replaces AP VoteCast, which the AP ran alone in general elections from 2018 to 2024. PBS reports that it is the first time in a major general election that the AP has partnered with broadcast networks to survey voters, and that results will be published in every state with a statewide election (PBS News).
The design follows how people now vote. About 75,000 voters are being surveyed before Election Day, online, by phone or by mail, and around 25,000 more will be interviewed in person at polling places in 15 states on November 3. Scott told PBS that about 95% of Americans voted at a polling place on Election Day in 1972, against “less than half” now (PBS News). By our arithmetic, 75% of the poll’s planned interviews happen before Election Day.
People (planned interviews or staff)
Source: PBS News, “WATCH: How does The Associated Press call 2026 midterm election winners? 4 things to know,” October 29, 2026, reporting figures given by David Scott, AP vice president for U.S. election services. Read November 2, 2026.
All four figures are approximate (“about” or “around” in the source). The Election Day interviews cover 15 states only; the pre-Election Day interviews include early, mail and online respondents. Interview counts are plans, not completed totals.
The chart shows that the survey, not the vote count, is the larger human operation of the night: the planned interviews outnumber AP’s results collectors by 25 to 1.
The Voter Poll is not a calling tool. PBS reports that races “can’t be called from this data,” though it can show the direction an election is heading (PBS News). It is the source most outlets will use for statements such as “voters who said prices were their top issue broke for” one party.
How the industry got here, as we have pieced it together from the sources below:
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Networks form the National Election Pool, supplied with election data by Edison Research | TheWrap |
| 2017 | Fox News and the AP leave the National Election Pool | TheWrap |
| 2018 to 2024 | The AP runs AP VoteCast in general elections | PBS News |
| January 2025 | The AP creates a standalone election services business unit, with David Scott as vice president | TheWrap |
| 2025 | The AP and six networks develop the Voter Poll | PBS News |
| October 15, 2025 | The AP says ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN will use its data in 2026 and 2028; SSRS acquires Edison Research the same day | TheWrap |
| October 26, 2026 | NewsNation confirms Decision Desk HQ as its exclusive race-call provider | Nexstar |
| November 3, 2026 | About 25,000 in-person Voter Poll interviews in 15 states | PBS News |
By our count, 384 days separate the AP’s October 2025 network announcement from Election Day. The consolidation is the story the coverage has mostly skipped: from 2018 through 2024 the big networks drew on two competing voter surveys; on November 3 the six networks in the Voter Poll will be quoting one.
When Will the First Calls Come?
The first calls are expected soon after 6 p.m. Eastern, when polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, followed at 7 p.m. by Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, according to Reuters (Reuters). The AP estimates the uncounted vote from past voting patterns and early-vote data, Reuters reports, and calls a race only when the trailing candidate cannot catch up; close races wait.
Some wait a long time. PBS notes that the AP called the 2020 presidential race for Joe Biden four days after Election Day, and never called the 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore because it judged Florida too close (PBS News). Coverage schedules show how long the networks plan to stay on air: CNN starts at 4 p.m., NBC News plans 13 hours from 5 p.m., and NewsNation runs “Decision Desk 2026” from 7 p.m. to midnight (Adweek; Nexstar).
How Often Are the Calls Wrong?
Rarely, but not never. Scott told PBS that his team made three mistakes in more than 11,000 races it called in this year’s primaries, and blamed incorrect information from election officials and a technical issue (PBS News). Three in 11,000 is about 0.03% by our arithmetic. Reuters reports that both the AP and DDHQ have withdrawn calls in the past, including an AP retraction in California’s 21st Congressional District in 2018 (Reuters).
The practical point is that a retraction is a news event of its own. A statement that congratulated a winner on the strength of a withdrawn call has to be withdrawn too.
What This Means for Anyone Buying a Placement
Election week is a poor week to ask a national desk for attention, and a good week to be precise about sources. Four recommendations follow; they are ours, not rules any outlet has published.
- Name the call. If a company, association or campaign comments on a result, say whose projection it is (“as projected by the Associated Press”). Different desks call at different times, and the table above shows they do not all share one decision.
- Quote the survey as a survey. Voter Poll figures are estimates from interviews, not counts. Attribute them to the Voter Poll and the outlet that published them.
- Hold what can wait. Non-urgent announcements compete with election coverage that runs for hours on every network. Our guide to planning an embargoed announcement covers timing, and getting booked on local TV news covers how local desks book segments.
- Prepare both statements. Organizations with a stake in a ballot measure or race should draft for either outcome; see how to write a holding statement. If an outlet misreports your position, use the steps in requesting a correction.
Methodology and Limitations
Four limits apply. First, the AP’s own website would not load for us, so the AP’s figures come from PBS News’s interview with David Scott and from TheWrap’s report of the AP’s October 2025 announcement, both of which quote him by name. Second, the Reuters explainer of November 1, 2026 was read in a copy republished by GV Wire. Third, we could not open the Voter Poll page of SSRS or a Deadline report on the same subject, so we do not say which firm fields the survey. Fourth, the outlet table covers only outlets whose arrangements one of our sources described; Adweek’s schedule round-up does not name data providers for most networks, and we did not fill those gaps from elsewhere.
Conclusion
The machinery of election night is more concentrated in 2026 than at any point since the National Election Pool split in 2017: one wire service’s count under most network graphics, one shared voter survey, and one private rival serving a smaller group. That makes the numbers easier to compare and the attribution easier to get wrong. For anyone commenting on results, the safe sentence names the projecting outlet and leaves “won” for the certified count.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who calls election results on election night?
News organizations do, not the government. Most use the Associated Press’s Decision Team or Decision Desk HQ, and some networks, including Fox News and CBS News, also make their own projections. Official results come later, when election officials certify them.
Which networks use AP election data in 2026?
ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN said in October 2025 that they would use AP data in 2026 and 2028, joining Fox News, which has used it since 2017, according to TheWrap. Each network’s own decision desk still analyzes the results.
Who uses Decision Desk HQ for the 2026 midterms?
Nexstar’s NewsNation and The Hill. NewsNation said on October 26, 2026 that it will partner exclusively with Decision Desk HQ for race calls on election night.
What is the Voter Poll?
A survey of 2026 voters built by the AP with ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MS NOW and NBC News. It replaces AP VoteCast and plans about 75,000 interviews before Election Day and 25,000 at polling places in 15 states, PBS News reports.
Can the Voter Poll be used to call races?
No. PBS News reports that races cannot be called from the survey’s data, though it can indicate which direction a race may be heading. Calls rest on vote counts and estimates of outstanding ballots.
How often does the AP make a wrong call?
Rarely. The AP’s David Scott told PBS News that the AP made three mistakes in more than 11,000 races it called in the 2026 primaries, about 0.03% by our arithmetic. The AP retracted a call in California’s 21st District in 2018.
Sources and Methodology
This explainer is built from PBS News’s October 29, 2026 interview-based report on the AP’s 2026 operation, PBS News’s election-night program page, TheWrap’s October 2025 report of the AP’s network announcement (read on Yahoo News), Nexstar’s October 26, 2026 NewsNation release, Adweek’s round-up of network election-night plans and Reuters’s November 1, 2026 explainer (read in GV Wire’s republished copy), all read on November 2, 2026. The outlet table, the timeline, the percentages and the day count are our own compilation and arithmetic. The recommendations for communicators are ours, not rules any outlet has published.
- trade press PBS News, WATCH: How does The Associated Press call 2026 midterm election winners? 4 things to know. AP race count, staffing, Decision Team, Voter Poll partners and sample, VoteCast history, primary error count, 1972 voting share, quotes from David Scott. Read November 2, 2026.
- official PBS News, WATCH LIVE: Election night 2026 PBS News special coverage. PBS uses AP results and the AP Decision Team. Read November 2, 2026.
- trade press TheWrap (via Yahoo News), Top News Networks Shift to AP Data for 2026, 2028 Elections. October 15, 2025 AP announcement, Fox use since 2017, National Election Pool history, AP election unit, SSRS acquisition of Edison. Read November 2, 2026.
- official Nexstar Media Group, NewsNation To Present Special Election Coverage on November 3. Exclusive DDHQ partnership, coverage times, release dated October 26, 2026. Read November 2, 2026.
- trade press Adweek TVNewser, How News Networks are Covering the 2026 Midterm Elections. Network start times; NBC News Decision Desk calls for Noticias Telemundo. Read November 2, 2026.
- trade press Reuters (republished by GV Wire), How US news organizations will make midterm race calls. Which outlets rely on AP alone or project on their own, DDHQ method, first poll closings, past retractions. Read November 2, 2026.